From the beginning of the central economic work conference, most people see the 2012 China's overall economic policy orientation in emphasizing a "stable" word, but the Central Economic Work Conference announcement revealed a very important China's economic development Strategy will be a major turning point in the new information. This article expects that 2012 will be a major year for China's economic development strategy. And this transformation will be expressed as the following aspects:
First, 2012's economic growth will change the guiding principle of past GDP. In the second half of this year, despite the global economy is facing a greater uncertainty, the risk of China's economic downturn is not small, the government's various pressures flocked, but the government did not go to the old road in 2008, but more time, Weakened the pursuit of GDP is from. From the announcement of economic policy to the point of view, the face of the current poor domestic and international economic environment, the government would rather pursue the performance of GDP down, nor easy to introduce policies to stimulate economic growth.
Second, 2012 China's major strategic transformation of the economy may be expressed as to get rid of "monetary dependence." Since 2003, China's economic policy has been the real economy and the virtual economy or financial economy confused, that only GDP up, personal paper wealth increased, China's economy has grown rapidly. And this economic growth is mainly based on a variety of credit on the basis of excessive expansion. It can be said that nearly a decade, the Chinese economy "currency dependence" is very serious. From 1998 to 2002, the growth rate of bank credit was about 1 trillion yuan, while the current growth rate of credit reached an average of nearly 8 trillion yuan, but in fact the GDP growth in 2010 is only the GDP growth in 2002 Less than 4 times.
In other words, over the past decade, the relationship between the total amount of Chinese currency and the total economy has been seriously distorted. For example, the total assets of domestic banks over the past decade reached 110 trillion yuan, which increased nearly 8 times, but also more than 2.5 times the GDP. This is also the proportion of the world is unique. While the total amount of US bank assets is less than double GDP, especially in other mature markets. Also, our annual credit growth is far greater than the real economy needs. But small and medium enterprises and agriculture and other real economy is still unable to obtain the required funds.
Third, 2012 China's economic development strategy is a major shift to the Chinese economy "to the real estate" or weaken the Chinese economy's dependence on the real estate industry.
Fourth, 2012 China's economic development strategy is also a major shift from the fundamental adjustment of the real economy and financial economy or virtual economic relations. This is a major shift in China's economic policy in 2012, and it will be at the heart of domestic future economic policy.
It can be said that a few years ago the whole society to understand the financial is the capital operation, is "overnight riches", is the financial to create GDP performance. Can see this financial manipulation or capital movements not only in the real estate and the stock market, but also to the domestic local government gradually spread. For example, the various local cities want to fight themselves into different regions, different areas of financial center. In this concept, many local government financing platform to this financial play to the extreme.
Therefore, the announcement stressed that the development of the basic economic fundamentals will clearly show to the market, accelerate the development of China's financial market is an inevitable trend, but the financial market development is only for the real economy, and vice versa, not for the development of financial markets and development And ignore the economic development of the entity. And this change in the concept will affect the future of China's introduction of a series of economic policies.
In short, 2012 will be a major change in China's economic development strategy of the year, and the meaning of the domestic economic development strategy is basically included in the text of the announcement.
(Source: China Machinery Network)
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